2022 Russian-Ukrainian War and the Future of EU Energy and Transport Security: Analyzing the Implications of Diversifification the Transport and Energy Transit Routes – the Case of the Black Sea/Caspian Region

Abstract

Given recent events, such as the full invasion of Ukraine’s sovereign territories by the Russian army in 2022, this article critically analyzes how the use of the Caucasus-Caspian region could serve Brus- sels as an alternative means of diversifying energy sources to ensure its energy security. The study is comprehensive and covers various forms of energy projects. Particular attention is paid to exploring the various phases regarding Shah Deniz and potential expansion plans. In addition, it carefully ex- amines all other important factors associated with the production, transportation, and exploration of energy resources in the Caspian reserves.
In addition, a key task is to classify and compare the EU’s geopolitical priorities before and after the 2022 war, present an analysis of the complex paths of transformation of the EU’s energy supply, and clarify its new policies regarding the relations between the main regional players: the Russian Federation, the EU, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.
It has been established that the Black Sea-Caspian steppe contains valuable energy reserves. Due to the critical geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic importance of the region, the EU has an interest in the region. The study provides a comparative overview of different aspects of EU ener- gy diversification policies. It examines how these policies have influenced the approach of foreign states to the Caucasus-Caspian region, taking into account recent events. Moreover, it considers national goals and takes into account the important interests of leading powers.